A New Climate Model Can Predict Dengue Outbreaks in the Caribbean Region
Changes in climate, such as rain and drought, can affect the risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. An international team comprising the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) has developed a new tool to predict the impact of droughts and extreme rainfall on the risk of dengue outbreaks.
Over the last years, the Caribbean region has faced a large number of disease outbreaks transmitted by the Aedes mosquito (dengue, chikungunya and Zika). It is also a region with large drought periods, particularly in years with El Niño events. During these dry seasons, many households store water in recipients, which represents ideal breeding sites for mosquitoes. However, few studies have examined the effects of prolonged drought on dengue transmission.
Now, an international team has developed a statistical model for the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology in order to predict dengue outbreaks in Barbados. The methodology is based on previous studies performed for Brazil and Ecuador. Based on temperature and rainfall data, they built a model that predicted monthly dengue cases between 1999 and 2016.
The results, published in PLOS Medicine, show that the tool successfully predicted the months with dengue outbreaks. In particular, the optimal conditions for outbreaks were drought periods followed by a combination of hot conditions and intense rainfall 4 to 5 months after.
Rachel Lowe, lead author and researcher at ISGlobal and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, explains, "This is the first statistical model that considers the combined impact of drought and rainfall in disease risk. This is important because climate change is leading to more intense and frequent droughts and hurricanes in the region. This tool is of great value for public health policies since it helps to plan interventions aimed at reducing the risk of dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases."
In fact, this model is expected to contribute to an early warning system in the entire Caribbean region to predict possible outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases, three months in advance.
Reference: Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study Rachel Lowe, Antonio Gasparrini, Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck, Catherine A. Lippi, Roche Mahon, Adrian R. Trotman, Leslie Rollock, Avery Q. J. Hinds, Sadie J., Ryan, Anna M. Stewart Ibarra. PLOS Medicine. 17 July 2018. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002613
Source: Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)
CDC Urges Vigilance: New Recommendations for Monitoring and Testing H5N1 Exposures
July 11th 2025With avian influenza A(H5N1) infections surfacing in both animals and humans, the CDC has issued updated guidance calling for aggressive monitoring and targeted testing to contain the virus and protect public health.
IP LifeLine: Layoffs and the Evolving Job Market Landscape for Infection Preventionists
July 11th 2025Infection preventionists, once hailed as indispensable during the pandemic, now face a sobering reality: budget pressures, hiring freezes, and layoffs are reshaping the field, leaving many IPs worried about their future and questioning their value within health care organizations.
A Helping Hand: Innovative Approaches to Expanding Hand Hygiene Programs in Acute Care Settings
July 9th 2025Who knew candy, UV lights, and a college kid in scrubs could double hand hygiene adherence? A Pennsylvania hospital’s creative shake-up of its infection prevention program shows that sometimes it takes more than soap to get hands clean—and keep them that way.
